Somebody’s Gotta Get In
With less than a month to go in the 2023-24 regular season, five teams in the Eastern Conference have all but secured their spot in the playoffs, leaving just three spots up for grabs: third in the metro, and two wildcard teams. In a strange turn of events, there are currently eight teams that have between twelve and fourteen games remaining, and are all still technically competing for a ticket to the dance.
So, let’s go over the eight teams in question:
Philadelphia Flyers
As of March 22, the Philadelphia Flyers hold the third spot in the Metropolitan Division, with a record of 35-26-9 and 79 points. For all believers, moneypuck.com currently has the Flyers with an 90.8% chance to make the playoffs. Now, this is remarkable for several reasons.
This is a team that sold at the deadline. Their power play is dead last in the league, firing at a paltry 12.9%. They have a -5 goal differential. They don’t even have a point-per-game player. John Tortorella— their head coach— has been suspended, and is reportedly about to health bomb recently named captain Sean Couturier for the second consecutive game. Most notably, their starting goaltender is on an indefinite leave of absence from the team following a sexual assault charge in connection to the 2018 Hockey Canada World Juniors scandal.
Nevertheless, they persist.
Sure, the Flyers are in the playoff picture largely due to there only being five legitimately good Eastern teams. But you can’t deny that this is a team who has fully and completely bought into John Tortorella’s system. Their goaltending is below average, but they allow the third least shots in the league. They lead the league in blocked shots with 1,295. They also have the third ranked penalty kill, and have scored a league-leading fifteen shorthanded goals. Offensively, there isn’t much to write home about. But as far as team defense is concerned, you’d be hard-pressed to find a more dedicated group.
Do I think they could go on a run in the playoffs? Not particularly. As of today, they would play another defensively sound team in the Carolina Hurricanes. But if that matchup changes, the Flyers could do some damage.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Talk about a strange season for the Tampa Bay Lightning. They currently hold the top wildcard spot, with a record of 38-25-6 and 82 points on the season. They started the season without Andrei Vasilevskiy, who didn’t play until 11/24/23. Even so, they started the year 9-6-5, while relying on goaltenders Matt Tomkins and Jonas Johansson. They sit at a 99.7% chance to make the playoffs.
Let’s start with the positives. Tampa has the top ranked power play in the league, firing at 28.9%. This is in no small part thanks to the dominance of Nikita Kucherov, who leads the league in points, and has 41-81-122 in 68 games played. He has 12 goals and a league leading 45 points on the power play. To call further attention to Kucherov’s brilliant season, he has 44 more points than Tampa’s second leading scorer, Brayden Point. Tampa also has the 9th ranked penalty kill, at 81.4%. They’re riding a four game win streak, all four against teams currently in the playoffs. They may not be what they were a few years ago, but they look strong.
Now, let’s talk about the glaring negative. Tampa lost top defender Mikhail Sergachev on 2/7/24, and didn’t truly fill that top-4 vacancy at the trade deadline. They did, however, add Matt Dumba, and Anthony Duclair (4-3-7 in 5 games). Both are good players. But to make noise in the Stanley Cup Playoffs, you need more than one true top-4 defenseman.
Now, onto the real head-scratcher: Andrei Vasilevskiy. Vasilevskiy is easily a top goaltender in the league. This season, he hasn’t put up his regular numbers. He has a record of 26-16-1, a 2.91 GAA, and a .899 SV%. Now, to me, this isn’t concerning. Vasilevskiy has a habit of finding a new gear in the playoffs, with an all-time postseason record of 65-42, 2.37 GAA, a .921 SV%, and seven shutouts. It is, however, strange.
As of today, Tampa is set to face off against the New York Rangers in the postseason. I could be wrong, but I just don’t see this team going gentle into that good night.
Detroit Red Wings
Before the start of the 2023-24 season, there were three teams that most analysts expected to take a step forward: the Ottawa Senators, the Buffalo Sabres, and the Detroit Red Wings. As of now, only one of those teams has risen to the occasion. The Detroit Red Wings are currently clinging to the second wildcard spot with a record of 36-28-6 and 78 points. But just barely. They’ve won only two out of their last ten games, and sit at a 40.4% chance to make the playoffs.
Now, the absence of their Captain and first line center, Michigan native Dylan Larkin, hasn’t helped. Detroit lost Larkin to a lower body injury on 3/2/24. They went 2-7 without Larkin, and were outscored 41-20 in that timeframe. He returned to action last night in an important matchup against the New York Islanders.
Detroit has the 10th ranked power play (23.2%) and the 14th ranked penalty kill (80.2%). They have a decent goalie tandem of Alex Lyon (18-15-2, 3.1 GAA, .903 SV%) and James Reimer (9-7-2, 2.98 GAA, .907 SV%). But the last nine games have shown that Detroit is a very, very different team without Dylan Larkin. A vulnerable team, even. If the standings hold, Detroit would be set to face off against the Boston Bruins in the first round of the postseason. That’s far from a favorable matchup.
Washington Capitals
The Washington Capitals have been the most improbable semi-success story this year. They have a record of 33-26-9 and 75 points. They also have a -31 goal differential. Yep, you read that right. -31. And yet, they have a 38.2% chance to make the postseason.
This has been a strange year for the Capitals. On November 1st, it was announced that Nicklas Bäckström would step away from hockey to focus on his health. He has not returned. Through his first 43 games, Alex Ovechkin was held to a mere eight goals. Since then, he’s scored 15 times in 22 games, including a six-game goalscoring streak. Through 1/24/24, Washington had the 28th ranked power play. Since 1/27/24 (which coincides with the start of Ovechkin’s six-game goal streak, funnily enough) they have the 2nd ranked power play in the league, firing at 32.8%.
Dylan Strome and Alex Ovechkin are Washington’s dual-point leaders. They have 23-31-54 in 68 and 65 games, respectively. Charlie Lindgren (18-12-5, 2.72 GAA, .911 SV%) has taken the starting job from Darcy Kuemper (13-13-3, 3.29 GAA, .890 SV%). Tom Wilson was just offered an in-person hearing for high-sticking Toronto’s Noah Gregor, which will take place “tomorrow afternoon via Zoom.”
The odds are against them. But I have a strange feeling that they’ll sneak in.
New York Islanders
What can be said about the New York Islanders that hasn’t been said already? They have a record of 29-24-15 and 73 points on the season. They’re tied with Boston for the most overtime losses. They have a -23 goal differential, and are riding a six-game loss streak.
The Islanders have the 16th ranked power play at 21.5%. Their penalty kill is ranked dead last at 71.4%. They’ve blocked 1,253 shots, which is good for 4th in the league. After going 19-15-11 on the season, they fired Head Coach Lane Lambert and announced the hiring of Patrick Roy on 1/20/24. They are 10-9-4 since then. They’ve gotten good goaltending. Semyon Varlamov has a record of 7-7-4, with a 2.86 GAA and a .910 SV%. Ilya Sorokin has a record of 22-18-11, a 3.07 GAA, and a .907 SV%.
The Islanders have gone 0-5-1 in their last six. They’ve been outscored 26-9 in those games. After losing an all-important matchup to the Detroit Red Wings last night, they currently have a 9.9% chance at making the playoffs.
Buffalo Sabres
There’s not a lot to say about the Buffalo Sabres. They are a team who has not met expectations. After missing the playoffs by one measly point last year, many thought that this would be the year they break the longest playoff drought in NHL history— twelve straight seasons! As of today, it doesn’t look like that will be the case. With a record of 33-32-5, the Buffalo Sabres are five points out of the playoffs, but they don’t have any games in hand. In fact, they’ve played one more game than Detroit has. They currently have a 3.4% chance to sneak into the playoffs.
The Sabres are, at best, very middle-of-the-pack. They’ve allowed the 12th least goals and scored the 20th most goals. They have the 27th ranked power play (16.6%), and the 17th ranked penalty kill (79.2%). They traded Casey Mittelstadt— their leading point scorer at the time— at the deadline to Colorado for Bowen Byram. Jack Quinn, one of Buffalo’s young offensive stars, has been injured for most of the season. Tage Thompson has taken a big step back from his 47 goal, 94 point season last year, and only has 21-21-42 in 59 games played. Rasmus Dahlin, Buffalo’s 1st overall pick in 2018, is their leading scorer with 17-35-52 in 69 games played.
But the silver lining is very, very shiny. Buffalo’s saving grace is a 25 year old Finnish goaltender by the name of Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen. In 41 games started (44 played) he’s posted a record of 23-18-3, with 2.52 GAA and a .912 SV%. Luukkonen is tied for the second most shutouts in the league with five.
It’s extremely unlikely for Buffalo to make the playoffs. But, at the very least, they’ll make the last month of the regular season all that much more interesting.
New Jersey Devils
The New Jersey Devils have a 33-32-4 record at this point in the season. With 13 games to go in the regular season, the Devils sit at an 14.5% chance of making the playoffs. Many— myself included— considered them a legitimate Stanley Cup Contender at the start of the year. Last year, the Devils posted the 3rd best record in the league with 52-22-8. Nothing was expected to change. Well, I don’t think anyone expected the Devils to replicate a 112 point season. But I also don’t think anyone expected them to be this bad.
Yes, the Devils have had their fair share of injuries. Dougie Hamilton hasn’t played a game since 11/28/23. Jack Hughes has missed 16 games, and Nico Hischier has missed 11.
But let’s look at the statistics. The Devils have a -13 goal differential. They have the 14th ranked power play (22.2%), and the 15th ranked penalty kill (79.9%). They only have four players who have hit the 20 goal mark. Last year, they had six— and that’s without counting Timo Meier, who scored a total of 40 goals between San Jose and New Jersey.
What’s killed New Jersey has been goaltending. They’ve had a revolving carousel of goaltenders: Vitek Vanecek (17-9-3 record, 3.18 GAA, .890 SV%), Akira Schmid (5-9-1 record, 3.15 GAA, .895 SV%), and Nico Daws (9-11 record, 3.15 GAA, .894 SV%). At the trade deadline, the Devils swapped Vanecek for Kaapo Kähkönen, who has started two games for the Devils and lost both, posting a 3.81 GAA and a .875 SV%. They also brought in veteran goaltender Jake Allen, who has a record of 3-1, 1.76 GAA and a .946 SV% through his first four games as a New Jersey Devil.
Maybe Allen will be the answer to all of New Jersey’s problems. Maybe he’ll drag them into the playoffs. But the Devils are 3-7 in their last ten, most notable losing to Anaheim and Arizona. I guess we’ll see.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Last but not least— or maybe least, if we’re going by likeliness to make the postseason— your Pittsburgh Penguins. What a season from hell, eh? The Penguins lost their season opener 4-2 to the lowly Chicago Blackhawks, and never looked back. This has been a season to forget, one where they were only kept relevant because of the theft of 18,000 Jaromír Jágr bobbleheads.
The Penguins have a record of 30-29-9 and 69 points through 68 games. They have the 29th ranked power play in the league at 14.7%. Jake Guentzel was traded at the deadline. Things have been bleak in Pittsburgh for quite some time now; the Penguins have gone 3-9 in their last 12, and have been outscored 52-27 in that timeframe.
There have been some bright spots this season. Sidney Crosby is still playing at a high level, putting up 33-36-69 in 68 games. The Penguins have the 10th ranked penalty kill at 80.9%. Goaltending has been exceptional, with both Tristan Jarry (19-23-5, 2.84 GAA, .905 SV%) and Alex Nedeljkovic (10-6-4, 2.95 GAA, .904 SV%) having great seasons. But in a season that began with General Manager Kyle Dubas going all-in and trading for Erik Karlsson, this has been a disappointing year.
At a 3.1% chance to make the postseason, the Pittsburgh Penguins are a long shot. I’m not sure anyone wants to see them make the playoffs this season, and that includes their fans. But somebody’s gotta get in.
