Bottom Six Backlog

It’s no secret that the Pittsburgh Penguins have a bit of a logjam in the bottom six. By my count, there are currently fourteen players competing for six slots in the bottom half of the roster— although, one of them will figure to slide up into the top six. Let’s go over the candidates.

In my mind, only one bottom six ‘hopeful’ is a lock for opening night, and that’s Lars Eller. Eller plays a simple game of hockey: he wins face offs, kills penalties, and he very, very rarely makes mistakes.

Last season, Eller was the epitome of what a bottom six forward should be. He scored 15 goals. He won 52.3% of the 932 face offs he took. He threw 55 hits, and he blocked 56 shots. He had 54 takeaways against 37 giveaways, and only eight of those giveaways came in the defensive zone. He drew 20 penalties— the only real knock against him is that he also took 16 penalties.

Let’s look a little deeper into his stats. Eller averaged 15:58 minutes of ice time, and 2:11 of that came on the penalty kill. While shorthanded, he had 18 takeaways, and only five giveaways. He blocked 15 shots. Sure, his 46.9% face off percentage when down a man wasn’t great, but since Aleksander Barkov— reigning Selke Trophy winner— only won 46.7% of the shorthanded face offs he took… maybe we shouldn’t put to much stock into that, yeah?

Eller’s true value can’t be measured by numbers or percentages; his biggest strength is that he always seems to know exactly what to do. THIS SHORTHANDED TALLY against Los Angeles perfectly sums up the Lars Eller experience. He loses the face off, and shifts into F2 when Rust rotates up. He skates cross ice in anticipation of the pass, and strips the puck from Fiala. Eller enters the zone, cuts around Doughty, and fires cross-body to beat Copley glove side.

He’s always in the right position, every decision calculated and every movement deliberate. The greatest players in the game fall victim to making panicked, rushed decisions. The Great Dane does not.

Kevin Hayes is the first of four newcomers who will look to compete for a spot in Pittsburgh’s bottom six. Penguins fans are probably fairly familiar with Hayes’ game, as he spent the majority of his career playing for the New York Rangers and the Philadelphia Flyers. To put it simply, here’s what Hayes brings to the table: he’s big, he’s got a decent shot, and he’s got great vision.

Despite his size (6’5”, 216 lbs), Hayes doesn’t throw many hits or block many shots, but his reach allows him to force turnovers at a steady rate (297 career takeaways). He gives the puck away at a higher rate (416 career giveaways), but in his past three seasons, his takeaway-giveaway ratio has improved significantly (111-86). Hayes is a very efficient high forward on the penalty kill, and is adept at putting himself in a position to be a shorthanded scoring threat. In his career, he has 10 shorthanded goals, and 18 shorthanded points.

Some other positives: he’s another player who can take face offs. Last year, Hayes won a career high 57.0% of the 838 face offs he took. He sees the ice well, and is a very capable playmaker, as shown in THIS GOAL against Anaheim. Hayes is a 10-year veteran, and with him, what you see is what you get. It’s almost a given that he will be in Pittsburgh’s bottom six on opening night.

Blake Lizotte is basically the Energizer Bunny: he’s small, he’s fast, and he never seems to run out of battery. He’s taken 5,897 NHL shifts, and he puts 110% effort into every single one. His ability to keep moving his feet— and his feisty penchant for getting under the skin of opponents— allows him to draw penalties at a high rate. Unfortunately, he takes penalties at an equally high rate; over his last three seasons, Lizotte has drawn 61 minor penalties and taken 49.

Lizotte is the perfect bottom six forward. He doesn’t shy away from going into the corners, and his forecheck generates offense. He’s got a good shot. He sees the ice well. He’s relentless on the penalty kill. He’s great at driving the net, and he’s got a knack for being in the right place at the right time. And he’s not afraid of physicality; in 62 games last season he threw 63 hits and blocked 28 shots.

His downside? Lizotte is 5’9”, 175 lbs— and I think that’s being generous. His size is his biggest limitation. He’s also had some injury concerns, and hasn’t yet played a full 82-game season. There’s no indication that this is a lingering issue, or anything more than a result of his size and aggressive play.

Noel Acciari is the best at what he does, but what he does isn’t very nice. He’s a defensive specialist, a shot-blocking machine who also hits everything that moves. Usually, his game doesn’t result in a whole lot of offense. Acciari tallied just four goals last year, and a total of seven points. But that doesn’t mean he isn’t an effective NHL bottom six forward.

Last season, he lead all Pittsburgh forwards with 85 shots blocked— which was good for fourth on the team— in just 55 games. He was second on the team behind Kris Letang in hits with 124. He had 26 takeaways against just eight giveaways. THIS GOAL against Toronto is the perfect example of Acciari at his best: in on the forecheck, forcing turnovers. And hey, the nifty shot isn’t too bad either.

It’s unlikely that Acciari will suddenly turn into a play driver that generates offense, but that’s not who he is. He’s a 5’10 undrafted player who makes his living by doing the jobs that nobody wants to. He’s also been above 50% in the face off dot for the past four seasons— capped off with last season’s career-high 54.5% (54.3% shorthanded)— and you can never have too many defensive forwards who are capable of winning an important face off.

Cody Glass is a bit of a gamble, as he’s never played a full 82 games. It seems like the supernatural entity that plagued Beau Bennett has resurfaced and latched onto Glass. The 2023-24 season wasn’t kind to Glass. He only played 41 games, scored six goals, and provided seven assists. He threw 31 hits and blocked 20 shots. He had 15 takeaways, and 18 giveaways. But if he can stay healthy, the former sixth overall pick has a ton of upside. He also has a strong net front presence, which is something the Penguins can always use more of. Just look at THIS GOAL against Boston, where he snipes in his own rebound from a tip attempt.

Look at what he does leading up to THIS GOAL. In the defensive zone, Glass steps up into Moser and takes the body to force a turnover. Carrier sends the loose puck up ice to Duchene, who spins and passes back to a trailing Glass. Glass maneuvers around Schmaltz’s outstretched stick, and passes back to Duchene. There’s also a bit of puck luck involved, but that’s not really important.

If Glass can hit the reset button and shift back into the 2022-23 version of himself— where he played 72 games, scored 14 goals and tallied 35 points— man, this Penguins bottom six suddenly looks a lot more promising offensively. He stuck to his game, threw 62 hits and blocked 32 shots. He also had 35 takeaways against 23 giveaways.

Valtteri Puustinen isn’t necessarily defensive-minded, but he makes up for that with his offensive upside. In his 53 NHL games played, he’s scored five goals, and recorded 16 assists— 10 of them primary. He’s an excellent playmaker, and he’s got a really great shot. He only has 86 career shots on net, so the Penguins can probably expect more offense out of him if and when he decides to shoot the puck more.

Despite his size (5’9”, 183 lbs), Puustinen is strong on the puck, and shockingly capable when battling for position in front of the net. He also doesn’t shy away from physicality; last year, he threw 38 hits and blocked 33 shots. He forced 19 takeaways, but had 15 giveaways. THIS GOAL against Detroit shows Puustinen at his best, being aggressive on the forecheck, forcing turnovers and then making himself open for a shot.

Last season, Anthony Beauvillier wasn’t especially productive offensively— although, to his credit, he was the potato in a game of hot potato, splitting his 60 games played between three teams (Vancouver, Chicago, and finally Nashville). He scored just five goals and posted a career-low shooting percentage of 4.8%.

Beauvillier plays a simple game. He’s elusive, he’s disruptive, and he’s shifty. He’s very, very good at finding the quiet areas in the high slot and redirecting pucks; THIS GOAL against Dallas is a perfect representation.

And let’s use THIS GOAL against Philadelphia as another example. Watch Beauvillier bounce off Farabee, circle back, and present his stick for Pulock as he sneaks between Farabee and DeAngelo.

Also, he’s not just a goalscorer. When he wasn’t scoring last season, he was effective on the forecheck, with 31 takeaways against 10 giveaways. And despite being— by NHL player standards— a little undersized, he threw 53 hits and blocked 35 shots.

I know, I know. Drew O’Connor finished last season on the first line. But in a perfect world, he’d be a third liner. His game thrives off of forechecking, forcing turnovers, and leading transition rushes up ice. In 79 games last year, he scored 16 goals and provided 17 assists (11 primary). He threw 53 hits and blocked 58 shots. He drew 14 penalties, and had 37 takeaways.

O’Connor is a good player. It’s just that when he’s forced to slot into the top six, his style of play leaves more to be desired. His hands aren’t the best. 21 of his 28 giveaways came in the offensive zone; if you’re a believer in advanced analytics, he scored 7.4 less goals than expected, which was good for worst on the team. He’s shown flashes— look at THIS SHORTHANDED TALLY against Boston— but not the consistency you want from a top six forward.

Rutger McGroarty will probably begin the season somewhere on the NHL roster. Where? That remains to be determined, although starting in the bottom six and giving him room to adapt to NHL speed would make the most sense.

In 36 games at the University of Michigan, he scored 16 goals and a total of 52 points. He’s big, he’s strong, and he’s got a great one-timer. He was very impressive in the Penguins first game of the prospect tournament, scoring a goal and feeding a teammate for a tap in.

Jesse Puljujärvi wasn’t especially impressive last year. He’s big and fast, but he’s not exactly inspiring offensively (three goals and a primary assist in 22 games played). He’s fairly physical (38 hits thrown), but average defensively and just okay on the forecheck.

Emil Bemström played 24 games for Pittsburgh last season, and scored three goals to go along with his two primary assists. He just wasn’t very noticeable; he didn’t stand out for the right reasons or the wrong ones.

Matt Nieto has been injured since the end of last November. He’ll start the season on LTIR.

Vasily Ponomarev probably won’t suit up for opening night against the Rangers, but I expect he’ll get a few looks this season. In a very small sample size last year with Carolina (two games), he scored a goal and recorded a primary assist. He also had a takeaway, blocked a shot, and was 55.5% in the face off dot.

Ville Koivanen has never played an NHL game, and has only played 12 games in North America back during the 2022-23 season. He’ll almost certainly start the year in the AHL.

Here’s how I expect it to shake out:

O’Connor starts the season on the first line. Bemström, Puljujärvi, Ponomarev, and Koivanen start the year in the AHL. Beauvillier and Puustinen are healthy scratches.

Glass — Hayes — McGroarty

Lizotte — Eller — Acciari