2023-34 Point Predictions

The 2023-24 NHL season has officially started. Before it gets too late, I’m going to throw my hat in the ring and attempt to predict the Pittsburgh Penguins players’ points totals, using the opening night lineup. Injuries are unpredictable, so these predictions assume that all 18 opening night skaters play a full 82 game season. In advanced analytics lingo, I believe that would be referred to as adjusted pace.

At 36, Sidney Crosby is entering his 19th NHL season, but is showing no signs of slowing down— in his last five seasons, he’s averaged 1.18 points per game. Crosby is known to be a fierce competitor, and after missing the playoffs last season, it doesn’t seem too far-fetched to believe that he could once again be part of the century club. Official prediction: 37-66-103.

Evgeni Malkin, now 37, is coming off of an 83 point season. He’s averaged 1.06 points per game through his last five seasons. While he very well could rattle off another point-per-game season, I think he takes a step back this year— but only a slight one. Official prediction: 30-49-79.

Jake Guentzel, once the rookie of the group, is now 29 and entering a contract year. Through his last five seasons, he’s averaged 1.02 points per game. He’s coming off of a slight down year, but I think he regains his form as a 40-goal scorer, and hits 90 points for the first time. Official prediction: 41-49-90.

Everyone’s favorite streaky Penguin, Bryan Rust, has averaged .76 points per game in his last five seasons. Rust is also coming off a down year— but it was a down year where he had the lowest shooting percentage since the 2015-16 season. Between playing on the Crosby-Guentzel line and getting PP2 time, I don’t think there’s any reason to believe he won’t return to form. Official prediction: 27-35-62.

Rickard Rakell has averaged .63 points per game through his last five seasons; however, the majority of that time was spent on an offensively-weak Anaheim Ducks team. Rakell has averaged .72 points per game during his time in Pittsburgh, and now that his position on PP1 has been secured, I think he will continue to produce. Official prediction: 24-32-56.

Reilly Smith, the new kid on the block, has averaged .67 points per game through his last five seasons with the Vegas Golden Knights— and if you factor out the 2020-21 COVID year, that number improves to .72 points per game. He won’t be on the top power play unit anymore, so his production might dip, but Smith has always been an excellent even strength player. Official prediction: 29-26-55.

If there’s any Penguins player who seems primed for a break-out year, it’s 25 year old Drew O’Connor. Last year, while averaging less than 10 minutes of ice time a night, O’Connor produced at a .24 pace. With more ice time, I can see him putting together a strong campaign during his first full NHL season. Official prediction: 12-21-33.

Lars Eller is known more for his defensive game and strength on the penalty kill than his offensive production, but he’s still averaged .45 points per game through his last five seasons. His scoring slightly dipped last season, but I can still see him being a decent bottom-six producer. He also has 15 career shorthanded points… so there’s that. Official prediction: 11-18-29.

Jansen Harkins is a bit of a wild card. He’s never played a full NHL season, but has performed well in his small sample size. He’s an aggressive forechecker, which I can see leading to takeaways and scoring chances. Official prediction: 7-11-18.

Matt Nieto is another defensive-minded penalty killing forward who isn’t exactly known for his offensive production. He’s averaged .28 points per game through his last five seasons, and I don’t see that changing. Official prediction: 8-11-19.

Noel Acciari was brought in for his defensive skill and chippy physicality, but he’s still averaged .31 points per game in his last five seasons. He’s had six multi-goal games through his last five seasons, and eleven game-winning-goals. Official prediction: 12-11-23.

Now in his 19th NHL season, Jeff Carter may have lost a step, but he still produces at a fairly steady rate. He’s averaged .48 points per game in his last five years, and has never scored less than 10 goals in a season. His spot on PP2 makes me believe this year won’t be the exception. Official prediction: 10-16-26.

Kris Letang has averaged .78 points per game through his last five seasons, but he now finds himself in a 1A-1B type of situation with newcomer Erik Karlsson. Between the fact that Letang is no longer quarterbacking PP1, and that he is now splitting the lion’s share of ice time with Karlsson, I expect his production to dip slightly. Official prediction: 13-41-54.

Last year’s Norris Trophy winner, Erik Karlsson, is unlikely to put together another 100 point season. He’s averaged .78 points per game through his last five seasons, and his offensive production will likely drop now that he’s playing for a more balanced team. He’s still one of the— if not the— best offensive defensemen in the league, however, so I don’t exactly foresee him dropping off the face of the earth, production-wise. Official prediction: 11-57-68.

Ryan Graves was brought in to replace Brian Dumoulin as Letang’s steady defensive partner, but he’s still averaged .31 points per game through his last five years in the NHL. Graves is a big, fast, puck moving defenseman who contributed to New Jersey’s strength of scoring off the rush last season. Official prediction: 6-21-27.

Marcus Pettersson is arguably Pittsburgh’s best defenseman, who is more known for his ability to thrive in a shutdown role than he is to score. He’s averaged .28 points per game in his last five seasons, and had a career high 24 points last year. However, as Erik Karlsson’s defensive partner, I can see him finding his way to the score sheet more often. Official prediction: 4-22-26.

Pierre-Olivier “P.O.” Joseph, 24years of age, has cemented his place on Pittsburgh’s 3rd defensive pairing. P.O. is another fast defenseman with a slight offensive scoring touch, and has averaged .27 points per game through his first 95 NHL games. His ice time will likely decrease behind Letang and Karlsson, but I’m betting on P.O. to stay consistent and continue to produce. Official prediction: 5-19-24.

Chad Ruhwedel, now 33 and in his 12th NHL season, is not known for his production. He’s known for being a steady, 3rd pairing defenseman who does the little things right. Ruhwedel is, however, known to score the occasional surprise goal, and I expect that to continue. Official prediction: 1-5-6.